Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a significant threat to life and property in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality (eThekwini Metropol) of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The devastating 2022 event, resulting in hundreds of fatalities and billions of Rand in damages, underscores the critical need for improved prediction capabilities. This study investigates the application of TRIGRS, a spatially distributed shallow landslide prediction model, for eThekwini Metropol. By integrating a transient infiltration model with slope stability analysis, TRIGRS offers a physically based approach to simulating soil hydrology and slope response under various rainfall scenarios. This work aims to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides within the study area, ultimately contributing to landslide susceptibility assessment and early warning system development.